IMF cuts sub-Saharan Africa 2012 growth forecasts

Sub-Saharan Africa's economies will expand at a slower rate in 2012 than earlier projected, undermined by global financial distress and a sluggish recovery in South Africa, the International Monetary Fund ...

Crossposted from ITA's blog, Tradeology.Guest blog post by Nicole Y. Lamb-Hale is the Assistant Secretary for Manufacturing and Services within the International Trade Administration This week I am participating in the 11th Annual U.S.-Sub-Saharan Trade and Economic Forum, hosted this year in Washington, D.C. The event is mandated by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and is the U.S. Government’s premier high-level, bilateral event with Sub-Saharan Africa. This year’s theme is “Enhancing Africa’s Infrastructure for Trade.” The AGOA Forum brings together over 600 participants, including senior U.S. and African officials, as well as U.S. and African members of the private sector and civil society. I am honored to be co-chairing a session with Humberto Brito, Minister of Tourism, Industry and Energy, Cape Verde focused on ways to create an attractive regulatory environment to attract renewable energy investment. Sub-Saharan Africa is a continent of opportunities for U.S. businesses with overall projected growth rates of approximately six percent in 2012 – some of the highest in the world. In looking at the world’s ten fastest growing economies from 2001 – 2010, six were in Africa. This trend accelerates in 2011-2015 with seven of the ten world’s fastest growing economies being in Africa. In the World Bank’s Doing Business 2012: Doing Business in a More Transparent World an impressive 36 out of 46 economies in Sub-Saharan Africa improved business regulations this year – a record number since 2005. Of the economies that improved the most in the ease of doing business in 2010/2011, with improvements in three or more areas of regulation measured by Doing Business, four of the twelve are Sub-Saharan African countries.

By TechCrunch: By Sarah Perez Analysts at Credit Suisse are forecasting slower growth in mobile phone shipments worldwide for this year, at a growth rate of 2%. The increase is higher than previous forecasts but is down from the 12% growth it had projected for 2011, according to this Reuters report.

Germany's economy will expand faster than expected in 2011, a minister said on Sunday, amid reports that the International Monetary Fund and Berlin would revise up forecasts for Europe's top economy.Spiegel newsweekly said both the German government and the IMF are now banking on growth of 2.5 percent this year. Berlin is hoping for at least 2.0 percent in 2012 as Europe's economic powerhouse motors ahead.The IMF's previous forecast in November was for 2.2 percent. The official German forecast of 2.3 percent will be updated on Thursday.

THE Fed appears to have a preferred recovery path. Early in the crisis, the Fed cut rates to near-zero and initiated a policy of security purchases designed to boost the economy. By last 2009 and early 2010, the Fed's messaging switched to discussing exit strategies, signalling that it was comfortable with the trajectory it was forecasting at the time. When actual economic conditions underperformed that trajectory in the summer of 2010, the Fed acted again to move the economy back toward its preferred path.

Brian Rezny submits: What goes up…must come down…at least a little. Copper hit a 27-month high last week, then proceeded to pare back its gains by falling the most in 11 weeks. The decline was understandable given the steep price momentum last week.Still, in spite of giving back some gains, copper has potential to rally further.