Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you at a disadvantage. In China, the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse.
Via Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen, Standing on the doorstep to 2015, we are experiencing near perfect conditions for momentum and equity investment. Inflation has fallen to its lowest since the 1980s, interest rates have followed, and energy is relatively stable. Corrected for inflation, oil at $65/barrel today equals $20-40/b in the 1970s.
Both the entire month of March, and its last full week, particularly for biotech investors and especially hedge funds, is a time that many would rather forget and continue pretending that the saying "as January goes, so goes the year" is no longer applicable. Luckily, for all those bulls who have forgotten that in a normal market there is both return and risk, at least in pre-New Normal times, there may be some good news.
While inflation seems to be on everyone’s mind these days, misconceptions abound. Indeed, few concepts in economics are as misunderstood as inflation. This month I take a look at some common questions about inflation, and a few that I wish more people were asking.
Back in April, we saw that merely asking the local economy minister what Argentina's rate of inflation is, was enough to prematurely terminate any interview and result in a mocking, viral twitter meme.
Rumors that a deal will be reached "soon" have gone on for weeks. Indeed announcements of an expected agreement today have already hit new snags.
For the sake of argument, let's assume a deal does go through and crunch the latest numbers to see what the situation looks like from the point of view of Greece before and after the deal.
Please consider Greece Needs EU145 Billion in Second Aid Package
Josh Rosner of Graham Fisher testifies before a subcommittee of the House Financial Services committee today on why Dodd Frank has not ended too big to fail, but also has managed to entrench the megafirms’ advantaged position.
Rosner provided Congressional testimony on this same topic in 2011, and deemed Dodd Frank’s plans for winding down systemically important firms to be unworkable. Rosner has good company here; the BIS and the international bank lobbying group the IIF reached the same conclusion.
By Investment Directions: Smoky the Bear’s fire indicator is pointing to “Danger!” To me, the stock market’s conditions are like a tinder-dry forest. While we cannot know if a spark will ignite a fire, we can beware and prepare for the possibility.