How Europe should harness market forces to deal with sovereign credit risk

 

Mathias Hoffmann, 20 March 2010If a European Monetary Fund does happen, how would it work? This column proposes a European Sovereign Insurance Scheme to sell bond insurance on EMU members' sovereign debt. In good times the insurance fees would allow the EMF to build up a capital cushion. In bad times, the EMF could use these funds to facilitate an orderly unwinding of the default – while imposing tough conditions.Full Article: How Europe should harness market forces to deal with sovereign credit risk

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  • Helmut Reisen, 19 May 2010Credit rating agencies have recently downgraded Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish sovereign debt, causing unrest among Europe’s leaders. This column argues that unless sovereign ratings can be turned into proper early warning systems, they will continue to increase instability and volatility and to undermine the benefits of capital markets.

  • Research Recap submits: Moody’s says Europe’s sovereign debt problems are likely to make borrowing more expensive for corporate issuers but could have some long-term benefits. The circular relationship between sovereign credit quality and corporate weakness will remain in focus throughout 2010 and beyond as European economies gradually work themselves out of recession. The indirect effects of a sluggish economic recovery on corporate credit remain a concern.

  • Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: The last time we posted our table of sovereign debt default risk was on February 5th, when worries about Greece and Europe were pretty much at their peaks.

  • Investors are turning away from Europe equities and instead shifting attention to the US and Japan as European sovereign risk remains a key constraint

  • Italy is now the most widely traded sovereign credit default swaps, while other popular trades include Spain and Germany as investors hedge their portfolios against the risk these countries are taking on through rising debt levels

  • The Business Insider submits: Below is a Credit Suisse table ranking countries by perceived country risk. Usual suspects Iceland and Greece unsurprisingly make the top of the list. Yet what struck us was how badly the U.S. ranked. According to Credit Suisse, it has more sovereign risk than Kazakhstan even.

  • Europe’s top 100 fixed income managers expect fundamental credit conditions to deteriorate for sovereign debt, according to a survey by Fitch Ratings

  • Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: Credit default swaps, especially for sovereign debt, are all the rage again in light of recent worries about default in Greece and other southern European countries.

  • David Goldman submits: The Financial Times quotes Gillian Tett of Geonomica on the peculiar fact that corporate risk is now priced higher than sovereign risk: For the first time, the market has started to price in a bigger probability of default among industrialised countries than among investment grade companies.Complete Story »

  • Research Recap submits: Fitch Ratings says most rated corporate bond issuers in Greece, Portugal and Spain face little near-term refinance risk given existing cash balances, recent bond market access and existing committed bank lines with at least two years to run. “Where liquidity risk is apparent, existing credit ratings already reflect this.”

 
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