Real estate guru Mark Hanson updates his housing view following this week's dismal housing industry data: Sept. Pending Sales... the largest MoM drop since Sept 2001... not 2011... yes, 2001. Don't let them tell you 'this is normal for Sept'. The 'oh-crap' moment is now in the can. Going forward, "Existing Sales" volume will disappoint on a YoY basis for several quarters. There is no way around it...
Michael David White submits:New Observations estimates excess inventory for sale equals 1.4 million units with over 4-million homes on-the-block, a figure hovering just 11 percent below peak-crash inventory, while at the very same time the realtors’ chief economist forecast Monday that “the housing price correction appears essentially over.”
The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) program involves the monthly purchases of $85 billion worth of Treasury and mortgage bonds. These purchases have helped keep interest rates historically low. But in the last few months, Fed officials have started talking about tapering QE some time in the near future. The bond markets have been going nuts, selling off in anticipation of the taper. And this has been causing interest rates to surge all over the world.
Sales of new U.S. homes rose more than forecast in June to the highest level in five years, a sign builders are benefiting from a lack of supply of existing properties.
Purchases climbed 8.3% to an annualized pace of 497,000 homes, highest level since May 2008, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median estimate of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain to 484,000.
The US housing market showed another sign that the free-fall could be slowing as figures showed that pending home sales rose for the third month running in April as record low mortgage rates are luring buyers
Really nice housing number. The Case-Shiller 20-city index surged 12.05% from last year. That's well ahead of the 10.6% that analysts were expecting. The month-over-month gain of 1.72% was also nicely ahead of expectations.
While the topic of plunging mortgage applications, both for new home purchases and refis, has been covered extensively here previously, and specifically its drop to levels last seen in 2011, the one aspect of rising rates that has gotten little prominence elsewhere (though covered here), is the topic of home affordability. Or lack thereof.