Holiday Starts With A Whimper As October Sales Comparisons Disappoint

By RetailSails:Retailers managed to post strong sales results in August, shrugging off the effects of Hurricane Irene, as well as consumers grappling with inflation, stagnant incomes, a volatile stock market and high unemployment.

RetailSails submits:Despite low expectations from analysts, most retailers reported relatively strong results in March, as improvements in the employment picture and consumers’ personal finances offset worries about surging food and gas prices.

RetailSails submits:Warmer weather and an early Easter holiday led retailers to post their best sales gains in years this past week. While part of that strength was due to the calendar shift, with Easter falling a week earlier than last year, consumers seem to be releasing pent-up demand and are becoming increasingly more confident with their spending as the economy continues to show signs of improvement.

I am always suspicious of early holiday season reports of glowing sales around Thanksgiving and especially Black Friday. Then, right after Christmas I always wonder if retailers lowball estimates so they can beat-the-street on same-store-sales reports. That said, because of the souring economy I am not surprised by reports of Lackluster Holiday Sales.

Retail Geeks submits: Most retailers reported comp store sales results for January 2011 that were generally -100 Bps to -200 Bps less than December 2010. There are no excuses in February 2011. In February 2010, essentially every retailer complained about weather negatively impacting sales.

Retail Geeks submits: Retailers reporting monthly sales numbers generally missed expectations. Most retailers reported comp store sales results in October 2010 that were materially lower than September 2010. Many retailers blamed the weather for weaker sales the first two weeks of the fiscal month.

RetailSails submits:Retailers are partying like it’s 1999 as a combination of an early Easter and warmer weather across much of the country, pent-up discretionary demand from consumers, and extremely easy comparisons to the year-ago period helped companies post their best same-store sales gains in more than a decade in March.

RetailSails submits:The combination of falling gas prices, heavy promotional activity, event-driven spending and unseasonably hot and dry weather helped retailers post robust sales gains in June. However, there continues to be a divergence between those chains that cater to well-heeled shoppers and those that target the low-income consumer, and the gap will only widen as retailers look to pass on higher input costs to consumers in the back half of the year.