The Highlights From BP’s 2011 Review of World Energy

By Frank Holmes CEO and Chief Investment Officer U.S. Global Investors In 2011, oil was one of the top performing commodities among those we track, with Brent rising more than 13 percent. Geopolitical risk and unexpected non-OPEC supply losses caused oil to rise significantly in early 2011. By October, we saw the black gold sink to a low of $96 per barrel before rising to its current level of nearly $108 a barrel.

By Arie Goren:In my previous post I have recommended investing in oil with a long term perspective. One of the main reasons for my recommendation was the impressive growth in the demand for crude oil from China. In order to find out if now is the time to invest in oil, it is important also to analyze the fundamental parameters of this important resource, production, consumption and reserves regarding China, the second biggest world economy.

A surge in U.S. oil production has pushed the country’s output to the highest level since 1992, threatening the dominance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The U.S. pumped 7.06 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 8, up 1 percent from the previous week and extending last year’s 19 percent gain, the Energy Information Administration said today. OPEC production fell to the lowest level in a year in January, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said today in its monthly report.

[Many longtime followers of the Crash Course have asked Chris to update his forecasts for Peak Oil in light of the production increases in shale oil and gas over recent years. What started out as a modest effort at clarification morphed into a much more massive 3-report treatise as Chris sifted through mountains of new data that ultimately left him more convinced than ever we are facing a global net energy crisis – despite misguided media efforts intended to convince us otherwise.

OPEC on Wednesday trimmed its forecast for global growth in oil demand in 2013, becoming the second of the world’s closely watched oil forecasters this week to predict weaker consumption. The move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report follows a similar downward revision to oil demand growth in 2013 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday.

The U.S. shale boom will send “shockwaves” through the global oil trade over the next five years, benefiting the nation’s refiners and displacing OPEC as the driver of supply growth, the IEA said.

U.S. oil and gas production over the next two decades will be higher than previously expected, the government said on Wednesday, underscoring the push toward greater energy self-sufficiency and more exports of natural gas. In its annual outlook, including the first forecasts through 2040, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said imports as a share of total U.S. energy production, including oil, gas and renewables, would be 9% by 2040 against 19% in 2011 and 29% as recently as 2007.

Dr. Stephen Leeb submits:Not to beat a dead horse, but we’re still impressed with China’s control over its fast growing economy. While the Chinese GDP down-throttled to single digits in the second quarter of the year, recent data points to a reacceleration. Among recently released figures, Chinese imports in August were exceptionally impressive.