Handling China With Care: ETF Pullback Choices

Precious metals exposure has been quite conspicuous lately in this weekly ETF pullback strategy (see Appendix below for explanation and performance data), and it has contributed to some incredible volatility of late, as can be seen in Figure 1, a screen shot from the FolioInvesting.com account I use to trade the model. Figure 1

Precious metals exposure is always something of an adventure, but it seems to be the case more now than usual.

Ho, ho, ho – Not! Looking at the performance for the latest week of my ETF Pullback strategy (see Appendix below for explanation and performance data), I see how kids feel when they open their Christmas presents and discover in a lump of coal, or even worse, a shirt or a pair of socks. Figure 1 charts the disappointment last week in the model’s performance (this is a screen shot from the FolioInvesting.com account I use to trade this model).

As 2010 winds down, this seems like a good time to reflect on the weekly ETF Pullback strategy (see appendix below for explanation and performance data) I launched during the summer. This is a purely technical approach that looks for ETFs that have, generally, been enjoying good uptrends but which very recently pulled back. Notwithstanding the “corrections,” however, this is very much a trend-based protocol.

In recent weeks, my ETF Pullback model (see Appendix below for explanation and performance data) has taken something of a global tour, touching down in parts of Asia, South America, Africa, Turkey and Poland. This week there’s still some Asia exposure, but otherwise this is a pretty solid play on potential strength in the U.S. economy. Here’s the current ETF list:

After a period of extensive exposure to commodities, mainly energy and precious metals, my ETF Pullback strategy (see appendix below for details and performance information) started to switch gears last week and continued this week. Here’s the current list :

The two-week flirtation with silver engaged in by my ETF Pullback strategy (see Appendix below for details and performance information) is over, at least for now. The idea of this technical model is to look for recent corrections in the context of major uptrends, and play the prospect of the correction’s end. Here’s this week’s list :

My ETF Pullback strategy (see Appendix below for explanation and performance data) closed its one-week precious-metals-oriented trades, probably a day later than I wished (see figure 1 below for performance tracking) but it does seem that the underlying forces that pointed the model in that direction last week may remain alive. This week’s ETF list seems tied, one way or another, to monetary circulation, the more the better. Here’s the new list: