Rumors that a deal will be reached "soon" have gone on for weeks. Indeed announcements of an expected agreement today have already hit new snags.
For the sake of argument, let's assume a deal does go through and crunch the latest numbers to see what the situation looks like from the point of view of Greece before and after the deal.
Please consider Greece Needs EU145 Billion in Second Aid Package
Via email I received an interesting set of facts from Barclays regarding banking exposures to Greece.
Greece: Euro area official sector exposures in excess of EUR290bn
Euro area official sector exposure
The Greek support package has not yet failed. But you can hardly call it a success. Investors have little more confidence in Greek debt than they had last week.
And - it seems - little confidence in the eurozone either. The euro today sank to a one year low, and markets shuddered across Europe.
Why? Apparently, even bond market vigilantes think you can ask a government to do too much.
Here's what I learned from spending almost an entire day in Greece.
First, most Greeks I spoke to don't want the country to default on its obligations, and the average person there probably has a better idea of what a default would mean for the country in the short-term than some of the outsiders who blithely recommend it.
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek and foreign bondholders offered about 30 billion euros ($38.8 billion) in a buyback plan that is key to the country's international bailout, a Greek government official said on Saturday. "The buyback went well in broad terms. The amount offered by investors was within the range expected, about 30 billion euros," the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. ($1 = 0.7735 euros) (Reporting by George Georgiopoulos, writing by Harry Papachristou)
Consensus is within reach if we are capable of seizing it. If everyone is reasonable, we can do it quite quickly
Euro-area finance ministers will push central bankers and the International Monetary Fund to endorse new plans to save Greece from the fiscal abyss, seeking to overcome the latest impasse in the three-year debt crisis.