Gasoline Prices Implied by Futures

Don't expect a big impact on gasoline prices from opening up an oil pipeline to the coast. I am a little late to this debate [0] [1] [2], but I wanted to highlight something that is clear from basic international trade theory. Opening up to international trade changes relative prices, and in fact raises some prices.

And pitfalls in partial equilibrium analyses Following up on my previous post, I want to examine what would happen if the Chinese yuan appreciated in real terms, either because of nominal appreciation, or because of more rapid inflation in China versus its trade partners. Here are some back of the envelope estimates.

I thought it useful to take a look at a few retrospective macro indicators pertaining the December 2010, three years after the beginning of what some term "the Great Recession".

Joseph Lawler at the Spectator distills the Austrian perspective on the sources of current unemployment. Economists of a statist or Keynesian bent tend to posit that modern managers are quicker to fire employees and squeeze extra productivity out of their remaining workers, and then explore why that might be so. ...

So says David Malpass in the WSJ: Data released this week by the Commerce Department waved bright red recession flags—orders for durable goods fell 13.2% in August and inflation-adjusted personal income fell 0.3%. ...

Paul Krugman observes that there are many real side factors that should drive oil prices higher (which cites Jim’s 2009 paper).

As commodity prices start rising again -- at least some -- the question of whether futures are useful indicators seems relevant. Figure 1 shows the IMF commodity price indices, as reported in the October World Economic Outlook:

That was the title of the Minnesota Public Radio's Midmorning show, with Kerri Miller.