By Gaius Publius, a professional writer living on the West Coast of the United States and contributing editor at AmericaBlog. Follow him on Twitter @Gaius_Publius and Facebook. Originally published at PR Watch
Authored by Stephen Roach, originally posted at Project Syndicate, Financial markets and the so-called Davos consensus are in broad agreement that something close to a classic cyclical revival may finally be at hand for the US. But is it?
The U.S. economic recovery story just keeps getting more exciting. Last Friday, we learned that GDP grew at a 4.1% rate in Q3. Today, we got confirmation that growth continues to be robust in Q4. Personal spending grew 0.5% in November, and October's growth rate was revised up to 0.4% from an earlier reading of 0.5%.
WASHINGTON – Retail sales rose in November and jobless claims fell sharply last week, hopeful signs for an economy that appears to have slowed sharply in the fourth quarter.
Retail sales rose 0.3%, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in October, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 0.5% last month.
Michael Panzner submits: Some experts claim that a slowing rate of decline in certain indicators is a clear sign that the economy is on the mend. Others say that aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus can't help but turn things around.
Saj Karsan submits:Many economists project a slow recovery from this recession, as consumer spending, which makes up more than two thirds of the economy, is not expected to rebound any time soon. On what basis are economists making these projections? Mounting job losses are a major reason why consumer spending is not expected to be strong, and serves as a risk to the economy going forward as we discussed here.
Matteo Radaelli submits: Trade Balance (Wednesday 10) – With consumer spending rebounding at the tail end of the year, we expect exports to increase more than imports in December, widening the trade balance deficit. Our estimate is for imports to increase by 2.6% to USD179.12 billion and exports by 2% to USD141 billion. Should our estimates prove correct, trade balance surplus may rise to USD38.1 billion.