One year ago, we provided our list of the 10 indicators to watch that seemed to precede the stock market declines in 2010 and 2011 and accurately warned of another spring slide in 2012. We again look to these indicators for signs of a potential spring slide in the stock market this year.
The U.S. housing recovery has been one of the most encouraging economic stories in the world since the financial crisis. However, mortgage rates have been on the rise, and recent housing data have been raising red flags.
It has been a sweet sixteen weeks for the S&P 500. The broad stock market index has had only three down weeks out of the past sixteen. While this stretch is tied by the same period a year ago, it is important to note that there has not been a sixteen-week period with fewer weeks of losses in over 20 years—since the period ending September 1, 1989.
Since institutional memories are short, it is time to remind readers that it was the threat, and subsequent reality, of China overheating in the spring and summer of 2011 (when record high food prices sent the entire North African region in a state of coordinated revolt and gradually moved far east)
The latest beer-consumption data demonstrate that drinkers will pay more for a product they deem as superior—be it locally brewed craft beer or an upscale mass-market beer like Budweiser Black Crown. A new report from the Brewers Association, which represents small, independent craft beer makers around the country, shows that craft beer is continuing on a terrific run. After a very successful 2012, in which American craft brew sales by volume rose 15% and sales by dollars increased 17%, sales are up again 13% and 15%, respectively, through the first six months of 2013.
For the last few years, the US equity market has soared through Q4 and into Q1 and macro-economic indications have trended with them in a virtuous circle 'confirming' that this time it's different and recovery is 'on'. Then just as investors get all bulled up, convinced by the market's all-knowing-efficiency that the old normal is back and growth is returning, macro-economic data starts to disappoint expectations.