Five Reasons To Be Bullish

 

Evidence of a looming bear market is notably weak, so give this bull market the benefit of the doubt.

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  • Our basic stock market message remains the same. The cyclical bull market is clearly intact, and deserves the benefit of the doubt until bearish evidence accumulates. Although some warning signs are emerging (e.g. rising bond yields, investor complacency), the stock market shows no signs of topping out. Technically, the stock market continues to look very healthy, although it is obviously overbought on a short term basis (Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1

  • Chris Ciovacco submits: While it may feel like we have entered a new bear market and that nothing like this has happened before, history paints a different picture. Markets move primarily based on greed and fear. The human emotions of greed and fear are the same today as they were in the 1980s (and as they were in the 1950s or any other period you choose to examine). This tells us if it happened before, it can happen again.

  • Daryl Montgomery submits: The S&P 500 gave a bear market signal on July 2nd; while the small cap Russell 2000's decline reached bear market territory.All the major U.S. stock indices had significant losses last week and Friday capped it off with more evidence that stocks are no longer in a bull market. From intraday peak to trough, the Russell 2000 has lost 20.2% so far. The definition of a bear market is a 20% loss.

  • Michael James McDonald submits: Once the stock market begins to decline after a long advance - like the thirteen month, 82% move off the March 2009 bottom - market analysts and technicians always face the same question. Is the bull move now over and is this decline the beginning of another bear market or is this a high level consolidation prior to another major thrust to new highs? This is the situation we find ourselves in today (see chart). click to enlarge

  • Brett Steenbarger submits: * We are in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. The secular bear market began in 2000 and, like secular bear markets before this one (1929-1949; 1966-1982), this one could last for 15 years or so.

  • This investing strategy works in a bull market, but it won't help in a bear market.

  • Here's how to tell whether it's a bull market or a bear market:Bull MarketNot-quite-as-bad-as-expected news is good news.No news is good news.Good news is WOW!Bears desperately try to squeeze bad things out of so-so-news and are ignored by the market.Bear MarketComplete Story »

  • After a generational bear market, the overriding temptation for most investors is to deny the new bull. Don't miss this one.

  • The Pragmatic Capitalist submits: The most basic definition of a bull or bear market is the market’s position when compared to the 200 day moving average. Most chartists consider a market above the 200 day moving average to be in a bull market and a market below the 200 day moving average to be in a bear market.

  • Daryl Montgomery submits: The big cap Dow Industrials will be giving a bear market trading signal today.The Dow's 50-day simple moving average will be falling below its 200-day. The happened for the S&P 500 last Friday, July 2nd. While this has not occurred for the Russell 2000 yet, the index simply confirmed small caps were already in a bear market with a close-to-close loss of 20.5% as of yesterday, July 6th. This puts it in a bear market by the strictest definition.

 
DJI: 10447.93 1.22% |S&P 500: 1104.51 1.3% |FTSE: 5428.15 1.05% |Nikk.: 9114.13 0.56% |DAX: 6134.62 0.83% |HSI: 20971.50 0.49% |
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