Fact, Theory, And Markets

Parsimony Investment Research submits:Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute ("ECRI") (go here for details) was recently on CNBC discussing the ECRI's outlook for growth. The ECRI monitors leading indicators to indentify turning points in the economic cycle. ECRI has had a strong track record for identifying turning points, thus their warnings should be taken seriously.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.2, down slightly from last week's 131.0. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 7.0% from 7.4% last week, an upward revision from 7.3%.

By Doug Short: The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -3.0 in Friday's public release of the data through February 24th. This is the seventh consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 19th of last year.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.2 versus the previous week's downwardly revised 129.6 (from 129.7). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped in the latest public data. It is now at 129.7 versus the previous week's upwardly revised 130.7 (previously 130.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 8.3, up from last week's 7.2.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.6 versus the previous week's 130.4. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 7.2, up from last week's 6.1. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 10th, and it is at its highest level since April of 2011.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.4 versus the previous week's 128.1 (which is an downward revision from 128.3). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 126.6 (which is an upward revision from 126.4). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below.