Marc Chandler submits:The US dollar is consolidating this week’s gains in choppy activity. Stronger than expected eurozone GDP (1.0% quarter-over-quarter) failed to lift the euro as much as one might have expected. It appears the market quickly realized this is as good as it gets. Heightened tensions remain evident in the European debt markets and this may also be helping to limit euro upticks.
If there was any doubt that global trade is stalling, it was promptly wiped out following the latest abysmal Chinese trade data which saw exports tumble by 15% - the most in over a year - on expectations of a 8% rebound, with the trade surplus coming in at CNY18.2 billion, far below the lowest estimate. While unnecessary, with the Chinese GDP growth rate this Wednesday already expect to print at a record low, this was further evidence of weak demand both at home and abroad.
Stocks were modestly weak overnight amid poor Japanese, Chinese, and European data, but as soon as the US cash markets opened, stocks surged higher algorithmically testing up to unchanged briefly for the S&P 500 and squeezing small-cap shorts (as usual).. until Europe closed. Stock started to lose steam but once Nasdaq and Russell broke red, programs slammed stocks lower and despite a late-day bounce, stocks gave up all the gains from Friday's "awesome jobs data" and then some with Trannies and Small Caps worst.
Asian stocks remain unchanged. IBM released its Q1 report showing its weakest revenue results since 2009. Guangdong reported a decline of 25.2% in imports and exports in Q1. Chinese social network Weibo will go public on Nasdaq today.
After a blistering October for stocks, drunk on yet another month of record liquidity by the cental planners, November's first overnight trading session has been quiet so far, with the highlight being the release of both official and HSBC China PMI data. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in October from 51.1 in September. It managed to beat expectations of 51.2 and was also the highest reading in 18 months. October’s PMIs are historically lower than those for September, so the MoM uptick is considered a bit more impressive.