European Elections and the Economic Forecast, 2012-2013

Jonathan Bernstein has some advice for the layman trying to navigate the political science waters. I tried to take his advice and download papers from the American Political Science Association's conference, but the 2009 page wasn't working and the 2008 page left me totally confused.

Things will look up for much of the global economy in 2013, but the improvements are likely to be lukewarm.   Credit Suisse analysts believe the following: Global growth will improve slightly. Europe will dig its way out of recession. China will see steady growth, and the American housing sector will improve further. But a commodities “super-cycle” of fast-rising prices is almost certainly over, and low interest rates for the foreseeable future make putting money to work challenging.  

OTTAWA — If there is going to be a significant and extended recovery in the global economy, it will need to continue forming in the second half of this year and solidify in 2014. Economists are recasting their forecasts upward for Canada and other countries after disappointing performances in 2012. Those turns of fortune hinge on a less crisis-challenged Europe and — critically — growing economic momentum in the United States.

Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live blog, We can’t predict the future – if it was actually possible fortune tellers would all win the lottery.  They don’t, we can’t and we aren’t going to try to.  However, we can analyze what has happened in the past, weed through the noise of the present and try to discern the possible outcomes of the future.

With today's GDP report I have updated my economic outlook and extended the forecast period through 2012. It maybe looks a little better, but still not wonderful.

Since we last looked at the S&P 500's expected trailing twelve-month earnings per share some three months ago, the future for the S&P 500's forecast earnings has become considerably brighter going forward. Which is good, because it also suggests that the U.S. economy went through a recessionary period in the second half of 2012, from which investors are now expecting a recovery.

(NEW YORK) — At least gasoline should cost you less in 2013. Hamburger, health care and taxes are all set to take a bigger bite out of the family budget this year. But drivers’ annual gas bills are expected to drop for the first time in four years. Forecasters say ample oil supplies and weak U.S. demand will keep a lid on prices. The lows will be lower and the highs won’t be so high compared with a year ago. The average price of a gallon of gasoline will fall 5 percent to $3.44, according to the Energy Department.