The Euro Crisis: Why Greece’s Election Doesn’t Matter

Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets asks the question "Will Greece unravel by Christmas?"Pettis makes a historical case for exactly that while stating "I don’t think Europe can postpone Greece’s exit much longer."　From Pettis, via Email, with Permission ....Will Greece unravel by Christmas?

LISBON, Portugal (AP) — Portugal's president invited the center-right coalition government of the past four years to return to power Thursday after it won a general election, even though it will be outnumbered in Parliament by opponents who vow to force it out within days.The coalition won the Oct. 4 ballot with 38.4 percent of votes and will rule as a minority government, with Pedro Passos Coelho expected to continue as prime minister.

For months on end, all anyone could talk about was Greece. Throughout the spring and summer, the country’s fate in the eurozone was considered the main risk to global markets if not for what the financial fallout from a Grexit would be (that risk was largely confined to the public sector), then for what a Grexit would mean for the future of Europe’s fragile currency union.  Then, a funny thing happened. Everyone forgot about Greece. 

By Liz Alderman Greece, the weak link in the eurozone, is struggling to pay its debt as its people and its creditors grow more restive. The tumult poses a challenge to the euro and the Continent's goal of economic unity. If Greece goes bankrupt or decides to leave the 19-nation eurozone, the situation could create instability in the region and reverberate around the globe. Q. What happened in Greece? A. Greece became the epicenter of Europe's debt crisis after Wall Street imploded in 2008.

BY MATTHEW WINKLER Lots of smart people expect Greece to default and leave the European Monetary Union. Global investors are not among them. Even before Greece reached its bailout deal with European creditors this month, few investors thought Greece would exit the euro zone. Despite continuing turmoil, they still don't. Why not? Because the market has confidence in the benefits bestowed by the common currency — and even more confidence that Greeks view things the same way. You can see it in the price of Greek bonds. If investors thought default was likely, the bonds would get cheaper.

By Peter Eavis There are some problems that not even $10 trillion can solve. That gargantuan sum of money is what central banks around the world have spent in recent years as they have tried to stimulate their economies and fight financial crises. The tidal wave of cheap money has played a huge role in generating growth in many countries, cutting unemployment and preventing panic. But it has not been able to do away with days like Monday, when fear again coursed through global financial markets.

Greece’s flirtation with an exit from the euro in 2011 and two cliffhanger elections in 2012 prompted the darkest days of the debt crisis, halted only by the European Central Bank’s pledge to save the currency come what may.

Political tumult in Greece, plunging stock and bond markets, the threat of default and exit from the euro: the script is eerily similar to the nightmare scenarios of 2010 and 2011. Debt-infested Greece skidded close to the edge then, saved by 240 billion euros (US$297 billion) in emergency loans improvised by European governments led by a reluctant Germany. Now, after achieving some signs of economic recovery, the government in Athens is again teetering, provoking a fresh round of doomsday speculation.