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    EUR, To Be Long or Short?

    Tue, 06/12/2012 - 08:44 EDT - Seeking Alpha
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    • MarketPulse FX

    By MarketPulse FX:
    By Dean Popplewell
    It was important that you did not close your eyes, otherwise you would have missed that Spanish relief rally. The lack of market conviction has investors believing that another eurozone member will eventually be seeking a handout. Despite their government assurance of no, will it be Italy? The market is not so sure that Spain, the EU members fourth largest economy, is capable of going it alone from here on in. The exact amount of emergency funding that Spain will receive will be decided after two audits of its banks are completed within the next few days. So far, the+EUR100b potential sweetener of a “credit line” has not been capable of reducing the borrowing costs for either Italy or Spain. The rise in both countries bond yields is an indication that the market is still worried about the countries’ finances. Spain is inComplete Story »

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    Related

    • A Euro Short Is Born

      MarketPulse FX submits: By Dean Popplewell Technical analysts will tell you that with the EUR breaching its four-month high this morning, long term Fibonacci levels are capable of being reached (2008 high 1.4315). For that to occur, the market has much fat to chew. The currency is supported by a hawkish ECB that views higher commodity prices as inflationary. Year-to-date, the EUR has rallied +9% against the dollar and the Fed’s deflationary oil stance.

    • Italy election punches hole in eurozone’s austerity defences

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    • Is a phased reduction of trade with the Eurozone on the cards for many British businesses?

      True that the recent UK credit downgrade attracted a lot of attention, however as some analysts pointed out, it did not reveal anything new. We all know UK growth is flat-lining and the Government’s austerity measures are failing to translate into deficit reduction. The Eurozone faces an even greater challenge as the economic fortunes of member countries diverge. Indeed, there are many factors which suggest that a loosening of ties with the Eurozone by British businesses is possible, if not already under way.

    • Tentative EUR Unhinged By Germany

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    • EUR On The Back Foot Again?

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    • Retail EUR Short At Offside Average

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    • Germany Blinks After All-Night Fight; Italy and Spain Still Not Happy; For Now, Futures Are

      It's a love-fest in Asia futures once again, but will it hold on Friday or through the weekend? One thing's for sure, sentiment was so sour about this 19th summit, that any bit of good news stood a decent chance of temporarily igniting the market. You can actually credit German chancellor Angela Merkel for that sour sentiment because she repeatedly stated Germany would not give in. The latest reports suggest Germany did blink, but not enough to please Italy, Spain, and France.

    • Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement

      As I have said repeatedly, Greece is noting but a sideshow, with the election last Sunday in France far more important than the election in Greece that has had everyone's attention. For further discussion, please see Greek Election Sideshow; Socialists Win Absolute Majority in France; How Long Will the Bond Market Celebrate Another Glorious Can-Kicking Exercise?

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