ETF Pullback Choices: Betting on the Economy

This week's listing for the my ETF Pullback strategy (see Appendix below for details and performance information) probably constitutes as good a reminder as we're likely to see of an important element of technical analysis: buying when analysis clearly dictates otherwise because of an expectation that market dynamics will, at least for a short time (one week in the case of this strategy), produce a counter-analytic outcome. Here's this week's list:

Last week’s listing for the ETF Pullback strategy (see appendix below for details and performance information) was a pretty bold example of pure technical analysis: buying when subjective analysis clearly dictates otherwise based on an expectation that market dynamics will, at least for a short time (one week in the case of this strategy), produce a counter-intuitive result. Here’s last week’s list, which focused on oil and silver :

The weekly ETF Pullback is finally starting to shift asset exposure in response to the difficult market we’ve been experiencing since the Middle East erupted in February. It’s not a completely defensive posture, which is just as well since trends have come and gone with considerable rapidity of late that we can’t even count on continuing market weakness. But it is more defensive than anything I can recall in quite a while. Here’s this week’s list:

This is the one-year anniversary of the ETF Pullback strategy I’ve been writing about on Seeking Alpha. As detailed in the appendix below, this is a weekly strategy based entirely on technical analysis, more specifically, the idea that it’s worthwhile to buy ETFs just after a recent period of relative strength has been interrupted by a pullback. Nothing ever goes straight up or down, so, it would seem, pullbacks ought to represent good opportunities to invest in ongoing trends.

My ETF pullback strategy (see appendix below for details and performance information), updated a day early this week based on vacation travel tomorrow, has heavy silver exposure, supplemented by a dash of exposure to other precious metals and European real estate. Here’s the current list:

Did you ever just look at a list of stocks or ETFs, roll your eyes, and feel tempted to start shopping on line for a dartboard? That’s pretty much how I felt looking this week at the list produced by my ETF Pullback strategy (see Appendix below for details and performance information). Here’s the current list:

Two weeks ago, my weekly ETF Pullback strategy was all-energy. Last week, it remained energy heavy but not quite as pure. Now, it’s pretty much across the board in terms of commodities with energy taking a minor role as precious metals and grains take center stage. Here’s this week’s list:

Every now and then, we find little reminders that top-down investing, focusing on broad areas such as countries or sectors, can require more discernment than meets the eye. At first glance, the list produced by my ETF Pullback strategy (see Appendix below for details and performance information) this week looks as straightforward as can be – all energy. Here’s the list :