Estimating the Union Vote Premium

Prime Minister David Cameron will on Wednesday promise holding a referendum giving British people the choice of staying in or leaving the European Union if his party wins the next general election. Cameron will say in a long-awaited speech in London that he wants to renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership because "public disillusionment with the EU is at an all-time high".

CARACAS, Venezuela — Hugo Chavez’s hand-picked successor, Nicolas Maduro, has officially won Venezuela’s presidential election by a stunningly narrow margin that highlights rising discontent over problems ranging from crime to power blackouts. His rival on Monday demanded a recount, portending more uncertainty for a country shaken by the death of its dominating leader.

Gallup announced on Thursday that it is reviewing much of its methodology after  finishing the 2012 election  24th out of 28 polling firms in accuracy.

The U.S. Census Bureau today released its 2010 Demographic Analysis estimates at a news conference at George Washington University – the first of three major Census Bureau releases in December. The data involve five series of national-level estimates of the population by age, sex, two race groups (black and non-black) and Hispanic origin (for under age 20). Demographic Analysis attempts to estimate the national population of 2010 but uses a very different technique than is used for the 2010 Census.

Nate Silver's successful prediction of the election outcome should be celebrated as a triumph of science over waffle-monkeys and reality-