Dragging The U.S. Into The European Recession
By Steven Hansen:Recently, John Hussman's weekly market comment implied a USA recession was likely to be triggered by the Eurozone recession.
……the argument from Wall Street is that despite clear evidence of recession across Europe, and significant slowdown or recession elsewhere in the world, the United States will somehow "decouple" and avoid recession." ……. The correlation with U.S. GDP - particularly in Euro-zone countries - is generally in the range of 70-90%.
John Hussman's "coupling" argument aligns with my beliefs - the global economies are coupled. Consider that the 2007 Great Recession was fully synchronized across the global economies - and by synchronized I mean the growth trend lines of the economies pivoted almost at the same time. China and India (among others) did not recess, and merely slowed.
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The coupling belief has limitations - all global economies have different dynamics. For example, Europe has not dragged the USAComplete Story »