Consumer Expectations, according to University of Michigan, soared by the most since Dec 2011 in May's preliminary data - spiking from 77.6 to 87.5. Despite a modest rise in current confidence, this spike in "hope" was enough to send the headline confidence print to 95.8, 11-month highs and well above expectations of just 89.5. Despite confidence rising, inflation expectations tumbled (1Y from 2.8% to 2.5%).
Hope is not a strategy...
Growth across the global services sector slowed to a crawl last month, casting renewed doubt on the prospects for a global economic recovery in 2016.
The Markit-JP Morgan global services business activity index fell to 50.7, suggesting growth in the sector all but stalled over the month.
The index now sits at the lowest level seen in 40 months, underlining that point.
The recent decline in US yields appears to have run its course and given Citi's outlook for a better employment dynamic in the US, they expect yields to trend higher at this point. Citi's FX Technicals group remain of the bias that the normalization of labor markets (and the economy) will lead to a normalization in monetary policy and as a result significantly higher yields in the long run.
Gallup reports Americans Sour Slightly on Quality Jobs Market.
The market for quality jobs may be cooling. The 21% of Americans who say now is a good time to find a quality job is down from 25% in July -- and the most negative reading this year. Now, 76% say it is a bad time to find a quality job, up from 70% in July.
“Our forecast shows encouraging signs that business investment and net trade are starting to play their part,” said CBI boss John Cridland.
He said the recovery was not a “debt-fuelled, housing bubble-led recovery”, as some economists have feared.
However, Mr Cridland warned that political uncertainty ahead of the election could be a real “mood killer”.
The global economy is at the cusp of a significant, and potentially sustained, upturn. But, after years of fiscal restraint, efficiency drives and seemingly endless restructuring, are UK businesses ready to make the journey from austerity to prosperity? The jury is out.
As the recovery begins, it’s a sobering thought that, reconditioned by a common batten-down-the-hatches approach to recession, very few companies are likely to be engineered for growth now that the shackles are being released. And the repercussions could be fatal.
Canadian banks have more loans out to Canadian businesses than ever before thanks to low interest rates and business owners hungry to grow.
At the end of November, the banks had $326.7-billion in loans to businesses on their books, up 9% from the same period last year, according to the Bank of Canada.
The banks themselves are no doubt pleased, but as an indicator of what to expect from the economy over the next few months the number is even more important, suggesting business owners may be in a hiring mood.