The camp predicting that the European Central Bank will soon cut rates is growing. Economists at Citi, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, Credit Suisse, and a few other shops think the ECB will pull the trigger on Thursday, announcing a cut to its benchmark refinancing rate — which currently stands at 0.25% — by either 10 or 15 basis points.
Ahead of this Thursday's ECB meeting, speculation is rife about what Mario Draghi will announce, and as the following Nomura chart highlights most pundits are convinced that the most likely announcement is a cut in the refi and deposit rate with a probability of around 90%, an LTRO in distant third at 34%, and a full blown QE dead last with 10%.
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, pausing to assess the health of the eurozone recovery after taking action a month earlier in response to falling inflation, which is now abating.
The decision to hold the main refinancing rate at a record low of 0.25% was widely expected after the ECB’s surprise decision to cut borrowing costs last month.
FRANKFURT — Mario Draghi called on the European Central Bank to make its biggest push yet to fend off deflation and revive the economy by unleashing a debt-buying spree of 1.1 trillion euros.
The ECB president and his Executive Board proposed spending 50 billion euros a month through December 2016, two eurozone central bank officials said. The plan still faces a tense debate in the Governing Council and may change before the final decision on Thursday, the people said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
There is still no official public schedule for the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, anticipated to begin on Thursday. However, as we noted previously, the schedule will not include a keynote address from a high-ranking Federal Reserve official. Furthermore, as Goldman notes, in contrast to tradition, Chairman Bernanke will not be in attendance (Yellen will but Summer won't).
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