Ahead of this Thursday's ECB meeting, speculation is rife about what Mario Draghi will announce, and as the following Nomura chart highlights most pundits are convinced that the most likely announcement is a cut in the refi and deposit rate with a probability of around 90%, an LTRO in distant third at 34%, and a full blown QE dead last with 10%.
The camp predicting that the European Central Bank will soon cut rates is growing. Economists at Citi, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, Credit Suisse, and a few other shops think the ECB will pull the trigger on Thursday, announcing a cut to its benchmark refinancing rate — which currently stands at 0.25% — by either 10 or 15 basis points.
Inquiring minds are reading "Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union" by the gang of four nannycrats: European commission president Herman Van Rompuy, ECB president Mario Draghi, José Manuel Barroso of the
European commission, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the leader of the 17-country
Don't expect any details. There aren't any. Instead the document consists of a wish list wrapped in a wordy package that says virtually nothing.