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    Corn Futures, Poultry Stocks Wait Out Argentina Drought

    Thu, 12/22/2011 - 18:02 EDT - Seeking Alpha
    • CALM
    • Corn
    • James Roemer
    • SAFM
    • TSN

    By James Roemer:After our bearish Fall attitude in corn and soybeans, due to our expectations of the "short crops have long tails" axiom and worries over the world financial situation, a developing drought in Argentina has the chance to rally corn futures at least 10% over the next few weeks. Why? Argentina and Brazil are then number 2 and number 3 exporter of corn in the world, and presently it is their summer growing season. I see a continuation of the drought expanding in most of Argentina.This is the critical time for Argentina's corn crop to pollinate. January weather so important because severe soil moisture deficits can delay silk emergence and disrupt the synchrony of pollen shed and silk availability, resulting in poor kernel set.The profit margins of chickens are related to the price of corn. In a nutshell, if corn prices fell 20% from current values, this would saveComplete Story »

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      By James Roemer:Several weeks ago, we began forecasting a developing drought in Argentina and that corn and potentially soybean prices would likely bottom heading into the key pollination and pod-setting time of the year for crops in Argentina and southern Brazil. As the crop condition indices show below, this was indeed the case, and drought regions (red) began developing due to less than 20% of normal rainfall in Rio Grande Do Sul, Brazil and much of Argentina.

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