Consumers' mood rises as pump prices fall

While gas prices always have some degree of unpredictability, there is generally a reliable (OK, reliable-ish) seasonal ebb and flow. Typically, prices at the pump rise hand in hand with temperatures. As days grow longer and warmer, drivers hit the road more. Demand for gasoline rises, as do prices, with steady increases mixed in with occasional spikes in spring and summer. Later, prices tend to retreat with the arrival of colder days. That’s how things typically work. Thus far, 2013 hasn’t been remotely typical.

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown claims that excessive oil speculation is partly to blame for high oil and gas prices and recently called for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to intervene.

Demand for gasoline usually dips during the cold, sleepy month of February. Prices at the pump tend to decrease or remain flat as well. Not last February, though, when gas prices spiked during a run-up to peak prices in the spring. And this February, prices are rising even quicker than last year. Twelve months ago, drivers were puzzled—and annoyed—by the sharp increase in gas prices, which was doubly frustrating because February has traditionally been a month when prices at the pump fall.

Demand for gasoline usually dips during the cold, sleepy month of February. Prices at the pump tend to decrease or remain flat as well. Not last February, though, when gas prices spiked during a run-up to peak prices in the spring. And this February, prices are rising even quicker than last year. Twelve months ago, drivers were puzzled—and annoyed—by the sharp increase in gas prices, which was doubly frustrating because February has traditionally been a month when prices at the pump fall.

By James Picerno: The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index jumped last week to its highest level since September 9, the consultancy reports. Nonetheless, the self-proclaimed “leading authority on business cycles” continues to forecast a recession for the U.S., as ECRI’s co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, explained yesterday on Bloomberg TV.

Traditionally, gas prices have risen in the spring and peaked during the high-demand summer months. Last year, though, prices spiked starting in February and reached their highs in early May, before declining slightly in summer. Has a new seasonal pattern been established? The only real “pattern” here seems to be the absence of one that motorists can predictably rely on. Gas prices usually fall in February. But prices at the pump rose in February 2012, and did so again in February 2013.

Traditionally, gas prices have risen in the spring and peaked during the high-demand summer months. Last year, though, prices spiked starting in February and reached their highs in early May, before declining slightly in summer. Has a new seasonal pattern been established? The only real “pattern” here seems to be the absence of one that motorists can predictably rely on. Gas prices usually fall in February. But prices at the pump rose in February 2012, and did so again in February 2013.