Bearish forecasts for the U.S. economy are giving way to more upbeat views of the nation’s ability to weather federal spending cuts and tax increases.
At Morgan Stanley in New York, Chief U.S. Economist Vincent Reinhart now sees a 3 percent pace of growth in the first quarter, up from 0.8 percent in December. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Bruce Kasman raised his forecast to 3.3 percent from 1 percent.
Dr. Stephen Leeb submits:Despite some positive economic news that has come out in recent weeks, one area of the economy that has yet to show real signs of improvement is retail spending. American consumers are still reeling from the near collapse of the U.S. economy, and nearly 10 percent of them don’t have a job (many more if you count partially employed). This raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, given that personal consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S.
By Brian L. Wilson:Tech Companies not dependent on the consumer market The big news today was that consumers are feeling worse about general market conditions than they have since 2009. While the consumer sentiment report has been a poor indicator of future performance of the economy historically, the stock market just doesn't like bad news of any sort.
U.S. economic data has been improving notably. And the U.S. stock market is near its all time high. However, Goldman economist Jim O'Neill is getting increasingly concerned that the stock market is getting expensive.