OTTAWA — Despite indications to the contrary, Canada’s economy may actually be chugging along at a steady — if not stellar — pace.
Signs of growth are continuing to appear, according to a leading Canada indicator, and much of that strength is the product of an improving U.S. environment.
The Macdonald-Laurier composite leading index advanced 0.2% in January, following a 0.3% gain in December but still matching increases in the previous three months.
During this presidential election cycle, economics and politics are inseparable. The fundamental question voters will have to decide upon when making their choice for President in a few short weeks is whether they believe that the weak recovery we have been experiencing is due to poor economic policies put forth by President Obama or unavoidable circumstance. While polls have consistently shown that voters lay blame for the financial crisis at the feet of President Bush, it is unclear whether they blame President Obama for the weak recovery that followed.
By Kevin Mahn: Following a year of heightened stock market volatility marked by global political uncertainty, here is my current outlook for the economy and markets in 2012, where more volatility and political uncertainty is expected:1) Expected continuation of slow, but steady, growth for the U.S. economy - call it an extended "U-shaped" economic recovery.
The Pragmatic Capitalist submits: The latest reading from the ECRI’s leading indicator shows that the economic recovery remains well intact despite signs of a mid-year slow-down. For the latest week the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicator rose to 133 from last week’s reading of 131.3. This is the highest level since May 2008. The index’s annualized growth rate slowed, however, to a 37 week low of 12.5%. This was down marginally from last week’s reading of 12.6%.
Ralph Shell submits: News on both side of the Atlantic confirmed yesterday morning that the recent economic recovery is slowing, with elected politicians and their advisers all fearful they will soon be looking for a new line of work. With the exception of the French Manufacturing PMI, all the other German, Euro and French forecasts of future activity were signaling warnings of a pending slowdown.
Global economic recovery is slowing faster than expected and extra stimulus from governments may be needed, the OECD warned on Thursday.Growth in the Group of Seven leading industrialised economies could slow to an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second half of the year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in an interim assessment."Recent high-frequency indicators point to a slowdown in the pace of recovery of the world economy that is somewhat more pronounced than previously anticipated," the OECD said.
Dr. Stephen Leeb submits:Despite some positive economic news that has come out in recent weeks, one area of the economy that has yet to show real signs of improvement is retail spending. American consumers are still reeling from the near collapse of the U.S. economy, and nearly 10 percent of them don’t have a job (many more if you count partially employed). This raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, given that personal consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S.