Getty/Mark KolbeRatings agency Moody’s today placed China’s sovereign rating on watch negative, suggesting a one-in-three chance that the group may downgrade the nation’s Aa3 rating in the months ahead.
The question of whether the yuan could challenge the dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency is not exactly a new one. China’s emergence as the world’s largest trading nation, coupled with ballooning U.S. public debt, has only served to increase the frequency of its asking. But the recent performance of both the Chinese economy and its currency have put a damper on that talk of late: amid slowing economic growth and its own increasing debt, the yuan has slid 3.2 percent against the dollar so far this year.
Last week was an excellent test for the overall bull market. While data out of China pointed to decelerating growth, US equities held up surprisingly well. High oil continues to be a challenge, but except for a few key sectors like Airlines, the broad economy still seems to be humming along.
It is likely just a coincidence that just a month after we reported that China's real consolidated debt/GDP was far greater than the 280% or so accepted conventionally, and was really up to 350% if not higher after the recent record loan issuance surge, moments ago Moody's officially downgraded its outlook of China's credit rating from stable to negative, citing three key risks:
Beijing (AFP) - China's central bank on Friday unexpectedly cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years, as authorities seek to prop up flagging growth in the world's second-largest economy.
The last time global equity markets were falling at this pace (on a growth scare) was the fall of 2011. That time, after a big push lower, November saw a mass co-ordinated easing by central banks to save the world... stock jumped, the global economy spurted into action briefly, and all was well.
Small and mid-sized firms in China have been hit harder by the weakening economy compared to large corporations. According to Shankar Sharma, India has successfully managed to retain its balance and to stimulate economy growth. Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating on Indian stocks to “underweight”. Following a six-day consecutive declines the BSE benchmark Sensex managed to erase all losses by gaining 179 points.