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    China's Vice Premier Sees "Chronic Global Recession"; Why this Astonishing Admission?

    Sun, 11/20/2011 - 04:11 EDT - Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
    • RDF10

    It's not often we hear candid talk from global leaders about the economic realities that lay ahead. This is one of those rare times.

    Please consider China vice premier sees chronic global recession
    A long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has said.

    "The one thing that we can be certain of, among all the uncertainties, is that the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis will be chronic," Wang was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying at the weekend.

    Wang's comments were the most bearish forecast ever by a top Chinese decision-maker about the world economy, and Beijing's worry about a worsening global environment could translate into an impetus for pro-growth policies at home. Why this Astonishing Admission?

    Regular Mish readers will not find that forecast surprising in the least. What is surprising is the high-ranking official who makes that forecast.

    In a world of global economic denial about the Euro, about deficits in the US, about housing bubbles in Australia, China, and Canada, and in general denial about every economic woe the world faces, one might ask "why this astonishing admission?"

    I have a 3-part answer

    1. As China shifts from an untenable infrastructure model to a consumption model, as Europe faces a Eurozone breakup and harsh recession, as the US faces a deficit crisis (albeit halfheartedly at best), much global pain is in order.
    2.  

    3. By framing the problem as a global problem, the vice-premier gets to blame the world economy for the internal strife in China.
    4.  

    5. This is an indication that China is falling apart right here, right now, much faster than the Western world believes.

    The admission by the vice-premier simply reflects the demise of China's export model in the face of a rapidly slowing global economy accompanied by a regime change in China that will be forced to shift its internal priorities.

    These thoughts echo comments I have made previously in ...

    • Europe Undeniably in Recession; Germany Manufacturing PMI Contracts for First Time in Two Years, New Orders Collapse
    •  

    • Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied)
    •  

    • Hugo Salinas Price and Michael Pettis on the Trade Imbalance Dilemma; Gold's Honest Discipline Revisited
    •  

    • History Suggests Greece Will Freeze Bank Deposits, Exit Euro by Christmas; Spain and Portugal to Follow Next Year; What's the Rational Thing to Do?

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
    Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post ListMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
    Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

    • Original article
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    Related

    • China vice premier sees chronic global recession

      BEIJING (Reuters) - A long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has said.

    • China vice premier sees chronic global recession (Reuters)

      Reuters - A long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has said.

    • Lagarde discusses IMF reform with Chinese vice premier

      International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde met Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan on Saturday in Beijing, where they discussed reforming the IMF, state media reported.Lagarde is in Beijing on a two-day trip to attend a forum on China's development, where she will give the opening address.State news agency Xinhua reported the IMF chief and Wang discussed reform of the fund, but did not give further details.IMF spokesman Gerry Rice had said ahead of the meeting that discussions in Beijing "would touch on a broad number of important issues".

    • China to expand VAT reform to more firms: vice premier

      BEIJING (Reuters) - China will expand its value-added tax reform to more industries including telecommunications, railways and construction and make it nationwide, Vice Premier Li Keqiang was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua news agency. Li, widely regarded as China's premier-in-waiting, made the remarks at a recent conference, Xinhua said. ...

    • U.S. and China Conclude 22nd Session of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade

      Commerce, USTR and USDA welcome concrete results in trade negotiations, reiterate need to achieve greater market access for U.S. exportersToday marked the conclusion of the 22nd session of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) in Chengdu, China.  U.S. Secretary of Commerce John Bryson and United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk co-chaired the JCCT along with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack also participated in the discussions. Secretary Bryson, Ambassador Kirk and Secretary Vilsack announced meaningful progress on key elements of the U.S.-China trade relationship but also underscored that much more work remains to be done to open China’s market to U.S. exports and investment.  Today’s progress will help boost U.S. exports and jobs through the removal of important barriers related to electric vehicles, strengthened measures to eliminate discriminatory indigenous innovation policies, and stricter enforcement of intellectual property rights in China.  “The JCCT gives us a mechanism to address the toughest issues in our trade relationship, and we must judge it by our ability to make concrete progress,” Ambassador Kirk said. “We have reached agreement on a number of important outcomes, though we had hoped to accomplish even more. In our discussions with our Chinese counterparts, we spoke frankly about the need to redouble our efforts going forward.” “Both sides worked hard to produce some meaningful progress that will help provide a needed boost to U.S. exports and jobs,” Secretary Bryson said. “This is a step in the right direction. But we must continue to actively engage our Chinese counterparts to open additional opportunities for U.S. businesses.” “China is one of the most important agricultural trade partners for the United States and the meetings and discussions in recent days have helped to strengthen this partnership and build greater export opportunities for our farmers, ranchers and growers,” said Agriculture Secretary Vilsack. “We intend to continue these discussions in the months ahead on beef and other agricultural products to break down additional trade barriers so Chinese consumers can benefit from the high quality products that are produced in America.”

    • Geithner and China's Wang discuss economy in phone call: report (Reuters)

    • More confident China confronts US in latest talks (AP)

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    • Monetary Policy and Asset Bubbles in 2010

      By Joseph E. Gagnon Today, we're fortunate to have Joe Gagnon, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, as a guest contributor.

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