Benjamin Graham’s Valuation Formula for Growth Stocks
Those of you grappling with perhaps the most difficult investing challenge of all, valuation, might be interested to know of a simple formula Benjamin Graham articulated in quot;The Intelligent Investorquot; for the valuation of growth stocks. In his words: “Our study of the various methods has led us to suggest a foreshortened and quite simple formula for the evaluation of growth stocks, which is intended to produce figures fairly close to those resulting from the more refined mathematical calculations.”
The initial formula as described by Graham was as follows: Intrinsic Value = EPS * (8.5 + 2g). In this case, g represents the expected annual growth “over the next seven to ten years”. 8.5x was therefore Graham’s effective base P/E for a no-growth company.
This formula however took no account of prevailing interest rates. He revised his formula in 1974 as follows: Intrinsic Value = EPS * (8.5 + 2g) * 4.4 / Y where Y was the current yield on 20 year AAA corporate bonds. The current yield on US AAA corporate bonds is 4.35%, as you can see on Yahoo Finance.
Is the Graham Formula Useful?
With this Moneychimp simulator (here), you can compare the fair value given by a two-stage...
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misquoted
Graham never intended that growth formula to actually be used to evaluate stocks. This is a very common but dangerous misconception. See http://www.anahin.net/misquoted for a scan of the original edition of the concerned page with a footnote and a warning about this formula.