AOL Set to Disappoint Again

Mobile Guru submits: AOL (AOL) reports on Wednesday November 3rd and if recent history is a good indication, the numbers will not be overwhelming. Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Gannett (GCI), Yahoo (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) have all given us a good feel for where search advertising went this quarter. Is there any reason to believe AOL will do any better than these companies or is it a good bet they will actually do worse? Keep in mind that the previous year’s numbers had already taken a huge dive so this should really be the start of a rebound, or a good indication which companies may not have what it takes to compete. This quarter's reports show some growth, including Google (+16%), Yahoo (+17%), Gannett (+10%), McClatchy (+1.6%) and Microsoft (+8%) in terms of display or digital advertising. Not all these numbers are exactly apple to apple comparisons, as every company likes to break out the details that make them look best. Now the question is, how will AOL report on Wednesday? Looking back at last quarter, AOL reported a 27% drop in revenue in the advertising sector. For shareholders' sake, I will not mention the dreadful dial-up and online business that should provide the company with another enormous write-off down the road. I think the best case scenario would be if AOL reports a flat quarter in terms of advertising revenue, and the worst case scenario would be a roughly 10% decline. Anything more should raise some serious warning flags given how weak the previous year’s numbers were and the rebound in the advertising sector. Complete Story »