The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis
That is the title of a new NBER working paper by Ragu Rajan and Rodney Ramcharan. The full title and abstract are:
The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm LandPrices in the United States in the 1920s.by Raghuram Rajan, Rodney Ramcharan
Abstract:Does credit availability exacerbate asset price inflation? What channels could it work through? What are the long run consequences? In this paper we address these questions by examining the farm land price boom (and bust) in the United States that preceded the GreatDepression. We find that credit availability likely had a direct effect on inflating land prices. Credit availability may have also amplified the relationship between the perceived improvement infundamentals and land prices. When the perceived fundamentals soured, however, areas with higher ex ante credit availability suffered a greater fall in land prices, and experienced higher bank failure rates. Land prices stayed low for a number of decades afterthe bust in areas that had higher credit availability, suggesting that the effects of booms and busts induced by credit availability might be persistent. We draw lessons for regulatory policy.