America: A high-stakes state

Zhong Jin submits:Today is the day of midterm elections. Fiscal spending is the big topic in this election cycle. For those interested, below is a table of historical midterm election results, along with the annual changes of the federal fiscal deficits and the annual changes of 10 year T-note following the election years since 1962.

If so, it would be a surprise. The electorate that votes for president is larger and more moderate than the electorate that votes in midterm elections. You'd expect that to lead to more moderate Senate elections, too. But according to a new paper by Yosh Halberstam and Pablo Montagnes, the truth is just the opposite:

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: For those interested, below we have compiled a table showing midterm election results along with the Dow's performance on election day and during election week since 1900.