2011 Insurance Outlook: More of Same With Potential Pitfalls

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their report on Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States in 2011. As we continue to fight back from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, the Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage report released today provides further evidence of how critical it is that we implement policies that benefit and create security for struggling families and our middle class—and not just the wealthiest Americans.  Today’s report shows that while too many American families are still struggling, the nation’s poverty rate fell and the percentage of Americans with health insurance coverage rose in 2011. It is clear that had President Obama not taken swift and aggressive action to grow our economy and create jobs, today’s report would have shown much higher poverty rates, lower incomes, and a greater share of the population without health insurance.  Though our poverty rate remains unacceptably high, this report shows that the poverty rate ticked down in 2011 after rising for several years in the wake of the Great Recession. Poverty fell for all age groups, including children, elderly, and non-elderly adults. A key reason for this decline was that 2.2 million more people had full-time jobs last year, in part because unemployment fell by 0.9 percentage points from December 2010 to December 2011. Government programs also continued to provide a vital safety net. 

March data released today for industrial production and housing starts show unmistakable signs of growth and recovery. Economic growth in the first quarter of this year is almost certain to be much stronger than the anemic growth of the fourth quarter.

Warren Buffett continues to write his excellent annual shareholder letter. It is a pleasure to read them every year. I have selected a few passages to include:

By Cyniconomics:This morning's quarterly bank lending survey capped off a series of indicators with a bleak message for the eurozone economy. Almost all signs suggest that Europe continues to spiral downwards.

Daryl Montgomery submits: A number of economic reports in the last few days indicate that the U.S. economy has not only not failed to recover from the recession, but continues to fall deeper into a hole. Banking, consumer confidence, employment numbers, durable goods and the housing industry - each representing a different aspect of the economy - are all sending out troubling signs. Despite the onslaught of negative data, mainstream economists continue to echo the official U.S.

From NY Fed President William Dudley: The Road to Recovery: BrooklynOn the national economy:[E]conomic growth so far this year has been disappointing. Real GDP in the first quarter of 2011 grew at a tepid 1.8 percent annual rate, and the available data suggest that growth in the current quarter will not be much better.